FOMC内部“冲突”不断 美元上蹿又下跳

日内的FOMC-4月政策会议以一种令人捉摸不透的形象出现在投资者眼前。政策声明、利率预期、经济展望、伯南克新闻发布会之间(甚至之内)存在太多的“冲突性”消息，一时间，金融市场左冲右突不得解。
周三(4月25日)纽约时段午盘，美元指数同其他主要货币对一样走出了冲高回落、触底反弹的诡异走势，盘中在短时间内连续触碰日内高点79.30水平及日内低点78.99水平。目前美指基本交投于79.10附近。
分析人士指出，造成美元以及其他资产“上蹿下跳”走势的主要原因为市场对美联储(FED)是否会推出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)的解读，然而多处冲突性讯息的存在使得这种解读过于稚嫩。
主要冲突一：美联储看好短期经济，看淡长期前景
美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)在4月政策会议上宣布维持基准利率在0-0.25%不变，同时保留了“将近零利率政策延续至2014年末”的措辞。
FOMC在声明中对美国经济近几个月的稳步扩张步伐表示了肯定。美联储称美国劳工市场总体状况有所改善，失业率出现了明显下滑，尽管依然处于高位。近几个月来家庭支出、设备和软件的商业投资继续实现扩张。与此同时，房产市场依然疲惫不堪，但也出现了明显改善。
与之相照应的是美联储之后发布的经济展望报告。在这份报告中，美联储将美国2012年国内生产总值(GDP)预期由2.2-2.7%上调至2.4-2.9%。
然而美联储对于未来两年的GDP预期则有所下调，分别从2.8-3.2%和3.3-4.0%下调至2.7-3.1%和3.1-3.6%。详细可见【美联储上调GDP及通胀预估、下调失业率预估】
美联储主席伯南克(BenBernanke)也在会后的新闻发布会上指出，经济复苏依然受制，目前宣布取得胜利为时尚早。对美国经济而言，保持低利率作为支撑仍然适合。
他并指出，“欧洲需要做更多，我们依赖于欧洲信守其承诺来消除重大担忧。欧洲债务问题再次使得金融市场承压。”
主要冲突二：更多委员支持提早加息，伯老不排除QE3可能
从FOMC政策声明后美联储公布的利率预期表我们可以看到，支持美联储更早加息的委员数量有所提高。显示出更多委员倾向于尽早撤出宽松货币政策。
数据显示，有3名美联储委员支持在2012年加息，7名支持在2013年加息。1月利率预期数据为3名支持2012年加息，5名支持2013年加息。详细可见【美联储委员4月联邦基金利率预估表】
但伯南克在新闻发布会上的讲话却与之形成冲突，他表示，美联储将在必要时进一步采取资产负债表行动以确保复苏继续。该行动暗指市场热议已久的“QE3”。
该主席称，“我们目前认为货币政策适当，但这并不意味着我们不会采取进一步措施。无论如何，QE3仍然是政策选项之一。”
TempusConsulting汇市策略师JohnDoyle表示，“显然，此次决定维持了政策现状，我认为不会令美元突破近期的狭窄区间。不过，有关经济逐步加速的措辞可能在2点公布的成长预期中显示些许更为利好的基调。我们可能看到美元因此小涨，因这可能降低推出第三轮量化宽松政策的可能性。”
MQSAsset Management执行长BobGelfond表示，政策声明没有什么新内容或意外，没有特别值得关注的。所有都是老生常谈，除非未来几季有真正强劲的经济数据，否则美联储不会采取任何行动收紧政策。
北京时间03:44，美元指数报79.08。
相关新闻
美联储公开市场委员会2012年4月24日-25日政策声明
美联储公开市场委员会2012年3月13日政策声明
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美联储公开市场委员会2012年1月25日政策声明
美联储公开市场委员会2011年12月13日政策声明
美联储公开市场委员会2011年11月2日政策声明
发布日期(美国时间)
2012/4/25
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2014年末维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：近几个月的经济数据显示出美国劳工市场总体状况有所改善，失业率出现了明显下滑但总体而言依然处于高位。近几个月来家庭支出、设备和软件的商业投资继续实现扩张。与此同时，尽管出现改善，但房产市场依然疲惫不堪。

通货膨胀：近几个月通胀有所上升，主要原因是原因和汽油价格上涨，但较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。
维持卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：委员会决定维持在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期国债的计划，同时维持将抵押贷款支持债券到期本金再投资到MBS，以及到期国债回笼资金再投资的现有政策。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.

Inflation: Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
回复该发言

maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
备注提示
里奇蒙德联储主席莱克认为经济状况可能无法为维持异常低利率直至2014年底提供依据。
发布日期(美国时间)
2012/3/13
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2014年末维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美国经济继续呈现出稳步扩张之势。近期的经济数据显示出美国劳工市场总体状况有所改善，失业率出现了明显下滑但总体而言依然处于高位。近几个月来家庭支出、设备和软件的商业投资继续实现扩张。与此同时，房产市场依然疲惫不堪。

通货膨胀：通胀形势近几个月继续缓和，尽管国际原油及国内汽油价格走高，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。
维持卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：委员会决定维持在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期国债的计划，同时维持将抵押贷款支持债券到期本金再投资到MBS，以及到期国债回笼资金再投资的现有政策。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed.

Inflation: Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the
回复该发言

average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
备注提示
里奇蒙德联储主席莱克认为不需要维持异常低利率直至2014年末。
发布日期(美国时间)
2012/1/25
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2014年末维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美国经济继续呈现出稳步扩张之势，尽管同期全球经济增长明显放缓。近期的经济数据显示出美国整体劳动力总体状况有所改善，但失业率仍居高不下。近几个月来家庭支出以相对较快的速度持续增长，而设备和软件的商业投资继续的扩张速度稍有放缓。此外，通胀形势自年内早些时候已经缓和，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。

通货膨胀：通胀形势已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。
维持卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：委员会决定维持在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期国债的计划，同时维持将抵押贷款支持债券到期本金再投资到MBS，以及到期国债回笼资金再投资的现有政策。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed.

Inflation: Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
回复该发言

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
备注提示
里奇蒙德联储主席莱克倾向于忽略维持近零利率政策的时间框架。
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/12/13
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2013年中维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美国经济继续呈现出稳步扩张之势，尽管同期全球经济增长明显放缓。近期的经济数据显示出美国整体劳动力总体状况有所改善，但失业率仍居高不下。近几个月来家庭支出以相对较快的速度持续增长，而设备和软件的商业投资继续的扩张速度稍有放缓。此外，通胀形势自年内早些时候已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。

通货膨胀：通胀形势已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。
维持卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：委员会决定维持在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期国债的计划，同时维持将抵押贷款支持债券到期本金再投资到MBS，以及到期国债回笼资金再投资的现有政策。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated.
回复该发言

Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed.

Inflation: Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
备注提示
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯支持目前进一步实施宽松货币政策。
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/11/02
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2013年中维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美国经济复苏步伐在第三季度有所加快，显示出之前对美国经济构成打压的一些暂时性因素的影响开始消退甚至逆转。不过，近期的经济数据显示出美国整体劳动力市场保持疲弱态势，失业率则依旧居高不下。近几个月来家庭支出以相对较快的速度增长，设备和软件的商业投资继续有所扩张。但与此同时，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场则继续承压。

通货膨胀：通胀形势已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落，较长期通胀预期则保持稳定。
维持卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：委员会决定维持在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期国债的计划，同时维持将抵押贷款支持债券到期本金再投资到MBS，以及到期国债回笼资金再投资的现有政策。
会后声明重点(英文)
回复该发言

Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent month. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed..

Inflation: Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
备注提示
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯支持目前进一步实施宽松货币政策。
回复该发言

发布日期(美国时间)
2011/09/21
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2013年中维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会8月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏形势继续保持缓慢步幅。近期的经济数据显示出美国整体劳动力市场保持疲弱态势，失业率则依旧居高不下。近几个月来家庭支出仅以温和的速度增长，尽管汽车销售在供应链中断的压力缓解后有所回升。与此同时，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场则继续承压。但是，设备和软件的商业投资有所扩张。

通货膨胀：通胀在今年稍早回升，主要反映出部分进口商品价格上涨以及供应链受扰。最近一段时间，通胀已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落。此外，较长期通胀预期保持稳定。
推出卖短债、买长债的扭转操作：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达至符合目标水准，委员会决定将在2012年6月底前购买4,000亿美元6年期至30期国债，并将在同期出售相同规模的三年期或更短期的国债。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand.

Inflation: Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable..

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to
回复该发言

extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of three years or less.
备注提示
费舍尔、柯薛拉柯塔、普罗索表示不支持采取更多宽松货币政策
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/08/09
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，联邦基金利率将在至少至2013年中维持于近零水准。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会6月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏较之前委员会预期的显著放慢。与此同时，整体就业市场的表现也不及预期。经济指标暗示就业市场复苏近几个月出现停滞，失业率也有所上扬。家庭支出非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。

通货膨胀：通胀在今年稍早回升，主要反映出部分进口商品价格上涨以及供应链受扰。最近一段时间，通胀已经缓和，因能源和部分商品价格已经从稍早的高位回落。此外，较长期通胀预期保持稳定。
维持到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策：委员会将维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策。委员会将定期检讨所持证券的规模和组成，准备在适当的时候作出调整。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. Indicators suggest a deterioration overall in labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.
Inflation: Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities of imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions. More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks.
回复该发言

Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Maintain reinvesting principal payments from securities: The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
备注提示
费舍尔、柯薛拉柯塔、普罗索倾向于保留“一段长时间”措辞。
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/06/22
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会4月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐前行，尽管步伐略小于委员会预期。与此同时，整体就业市场的表现也不及预期。不过，随着日本灾变事件对供应链的冲击以及食品及能源价格强势上扬对消费者购买力和支出造成的影响逐渐消退，委员会预计整体复苏步伐的迟滞现象将是暂时的。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。

通货膨胀：尽管通胀近期有所上升，但委员会预计随着能源和其他商品价格升势消退，通胀将放缓至符合或低於委员会的双目标水准。委员会将密切关注通胀和通胀预期的发展。
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达至符合目标水准，委员会在本次会议中决定维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，以及将在2011年第二季结束前完成购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan.
回复该发言

Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.

Inflation: Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.
备注提示
美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/04/27
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会3月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐进展，总体就业市场正在逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。

通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长。与此同时，市场对全球原油供应的担忧导致3月会议后油价进一步走强，但较长期通胀预期已保持稳定，基本通胀迟滞。
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达致符合目标水准，委员会在本次会议中决定一如11月声明中宣布的继续增持证券仓位。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradual
回复该发言

ly. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.

Inflation: Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued. .

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示
美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/03/15
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会1月会议后获得的信息，经济复苏的根基更为稳固，总体劳动力市场正逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。

通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长，同时最近几周，市场对于全球原油供应的担忧也已令油价大幅飙升。但是，长期通胀预期仍旧维持稳定，基本通胀依然受限。
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更为强劲地复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的发展达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定继续实施11月宣布的计划，即扩大证券持仓规模。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.
回复该发言

However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.

Inflation: Commodity prices have risen significantly since the summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks. Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding
its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示
美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)
2011/01/26
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现： 根据12月FOMC会议以后获得的信息，美联储进一步确认了美国经济复苏正在持续，但是经济增速不足以大幅改善劳动力市场环境。去年年底家庭支出获得了改善，但是仍旧因失业率高企、收入增长温和、家庭财富缩水以及信贷紧缩而受到限制。设备及软件的商业支出正在增加，但是非住宅建筑的投资仍旧疲软。同时雇主仍旧不愿意增加雇员。房产市场继续低迷。

通货膨胀：尽管商品价格已经走高，较长期的通胀预期仍旧维稳，基本通胀水平已经趋于下行。

维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济以更为强劲的步伐复苏，并帮助通胀随着时间的推移达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定将继续实施去年11月宣布的扩大持有证券规模的计划。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions.
回复该发言

Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed.

Inflation: Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.
备注提示
美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/12/14
利率动向
维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：11月会议后FOMC获得的信息确认了经济复苏正在持续的观点，但是复苏步伐尚不足以降低失业率。居民支出正在以温和的步伐增长，但是仍旧受到高失业率、收入增长温和、家庭财富减少以及信贷收紧的限制。设备及软件的支出正在增加，但是增速较年初缓慢，非居住型建筑的投资仍旧疲软。雇主仍不愿意增加雇员，房产市场继续萧条。
通货膨胀：长期通胀预期已经持稳，但是基础通胀继续趋于下行。
维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济复苏更为强劲并帮助确保长期通胀水平与美联储的职责目标相一致，FOMC决定继续实施11月宣布的扩大持有债券规模的计划，并将维持现有的将抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)到期后回笼资金进行再投资的政策。在这个基础上，委员会将在2011年第二季结束前进一步购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债，每月购入约750亿美元。委员会将定期检视证券购买的进度和购买计划的整体规模，根据新的信息在需要时作出调整，从而最好地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。
会后声明重点(英文)
回复该发言

Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment,
modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers
remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed.
Inflation: Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward.

Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding
its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.
回复该发言

The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/11/3
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%，但将在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元的美国国债以提振经济。
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：自9月美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议至今收到的信息进一步证明，美国经济产出以及就业的复苏步伐继续缓慢，家庭支出逐步增长，但仍因失业率高企而受限，收入增长温和，家庭财富减少，同时信贷环境趋紧。设备及软件的商业投资正在增加，虽然增速不及今年早期，非住宅投资继续疲软，雇主仍旧不愿增加雇员，新屋开工持续受挫，较长期的通胀预期已经持稳，但最近几个季度潜在通胀趋于走低。
通货膨胀：委员会将依照法定的目标，寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定的方法。目前，失业率上升，基本通胀相对委员会认为符合较长期目标的水平较低。

增加证券持仓规模：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达到符合目标的水准，委员会决定增持证券仓位。将维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，并在此基础上在2011年第二季前进一步购买6,000亿美元的较长期美国国债，每月购买量约为750亿美元。同时，委员会将例行检视证券购买的进度和资产购买计划的整体规模，并在需要时按照新的信息作出调整，从而最大限度地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed.
回复该发言

Inflation: Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate.
Expand the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
备注提示
霍恩相信进一步购买证券弊大于利，高度宽松的货币政策增加了未来金融市场失衡的风险，并随着时间发展，可能导致长期通胀预期的上升，令经济不稳。
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/9/21
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
回复该发言

总体经济表现：根据8月FOMC议息会议后所得到的信息，近几个月产出及就业方面的复苏步伐开始放缓。家庭支出正在逐渐增加，但仍旧受到高失业率、居民收入增加温和、家庭财富下降以及信贷紧缩的限制。设备以及软件投资正在增加，但增速低于年初的水平。而对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱。雇主仍不愿招聘员工。房屋开工仍旧受限。银行借贷继续萎缩，但在近几个月有所缓和。

通货膨胀：委员会预计，尽管短期内经济复苏的步伐可能较原先预期的要慢，但在物价稳定的情况下，资源利用将逐步恢复至较高水准。目前潜在通胀趋势某种程度上略低，无法长期、最大化地促进就业和物价稳定。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续限制成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平，此后将回升至其认为的符合目标的水准。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

Inflation: Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandates to promote maximum employment and price stability.
回复该发言

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.
备注提示
霍恩认为经济继续温和复苏，因此不再需要维持极低利率更长一段时间的承诺，而这将导致未来经济进一步失衡，并损害经济的长期稳定增长。
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/8/10
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：自6月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)议息会议以后，众多信号显示美国产出及就业方面的复苏步伐有所放缓。居民消费正逐渐上涨，但仍旧受到高失业率、经济增长温和、房产价格下滑以及信贷收紧的限制。软件及设备的投资额正在增长，然而，非住宅部门继续维持疲软，企业仍旧不愿意增加雇员。新屋开工维持在疲弱的水平。银行借贷继续萎缩。
通货膨胀：近几个季度通胀率趋于下行，随着大量的闲置资源令成本价格承压，长期通胀预期维持稳定，通胀率可能在未来一段时间内受限。
会后声明重点(英文)

Economy: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and
employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract.
Inflation: Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters, and with substantial resource slack continuing to constrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
备注提示
回复该发言

霍恩认为美国的经济正按计划地温和复苏，因此没有理由延长极低利率更长一段时间，这将限制调整必要政策的能力。
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/6/23
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美国经济复苏在持续，就业市场逐步改善。家庭支出也在增加，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压。企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱，雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决。房屋开工仍处于受压水准。

通货膨胀：近几个月，能源和其他商品价格已有所下滑，潜在通胀趋势下滑。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。
会后声明重点(英文)
Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually.
Inflation：Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
备注提示
霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/04/28
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点
总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自3月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续增强，就业市场开始改善。家庭支出增长近期加快，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压；企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决，房屋开工小涨，但仍处于受压水准。

通货膨胀：由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。
会后声明重点(英文)

Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.
回复该发言

Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

备注提示
霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/03/16
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点

总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自1月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场正在稳定。家庭支出显现温和增加，但受失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩等因素影响，家庭支出依然受压。
通货膨胀：由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。
会后声明重点(英文)

Economy："Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing.
Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
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霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率
发布日期(美国时间)
2010/01/27
利率动向
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%
会后声明重点


总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)自12月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场恶化程度减弱。
通货膨胀：由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。
会后声明重点(英文)


Economy：Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating.
Inflation：With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
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霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率
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